Activity Networks and Uncertainty Quantification: 2 Order Probability for Solving Graphs of Concurrent and Sequential Tasks
نویسندگان
چکیده
Activity networks model the time to project completion based on the times to complete various subtasks, some of which can proceed concurrently and others of which are prerequisite to others. Uncertainty in the times to complete subtasks implies uncertainty in the overall time to complete the project. When the information about the times to complete subtasks is insufficient to fully specify a probability distribution but sufficient to bound the distribution, the problem of making conclusions about time to complete the entire project requires use of second-order probabilistic techniques. An interval-based technique for this is described, and applied to the problem of evaluating activity networks.
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